Climate models suggest the developing El Niño could become the strongest recorded since reliable observations began, potentially increasing extreme weather risks and producing economic effects worldwide.
An analysis by Berkeley Earth scientist Zeke Hausfather examined forecasts from 14 models, covering 667 simulations through July. The projections focus on temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the eastern and central tropical Pacific, a standard measure of El Niño strength. After accounting for long-term warming caused by fossil-fuel emissions, the model average indicates temperatures could peak 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal.
That would be about 0.8 degrees Celsius higher than the previous record during the 2015–2016 event. Researchers note that the projected margin is unusually large: the difference between the strongest and fifth-strongest El Niños over 150 years is about 0.5 degrees Celsius.
El Niño changes atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall, heat, storms, and fisheries across many regions. Combined with human-driven climate change, the event could contribute to new global temperature records. Hausfather’s projections suggest global temperatures could reach 1.7 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels in 2027, while Carbon Brief estimated in July that 2026 had a 35 percent chance of becoming the hottest year recorded.
The event is also intensifying faster than the 1997–1998 El Niño, despite beginning after a La Niña period. Early effects include reduced fish catches in the eastern Pacific and a Peruvian anchovy-fishing ban.
Potential economic consequences are significant. Research cited in the analysis estimated that the 1997–1998 event reduced global economic growth by $5.7 trillion over subsequent years. A similarly modeled estimate suggests the current episode could produce cumulative losses of about $10 trillion by 2032.
Forecast uncertainty remains high because no historical analogue exists. However, researchers say convergence among models strengthens confidence that this El Niño could have unusually severe climatic and economic consequences.