On Thursday, March 9th, Russian forces launched a barrage of missiles at Ukraine. The strikes included cruise missiles launched from both the air and the sea, as well as six air-launched ballistic missiles, of which 34 were intercepted. The strikes left nearly half a million people in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, without power. This is one of the largest aerial assaults by Russia in months, and there are concerns about how effectively Ukraine can stand up to these bombardments.
Western experts believe that Russia will not be able to win the war through the skies. The missiles used in the attack were largely hypersonic and were difficult to detect and intercept. This includes the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, which are especially difficult to stop. This follows the Kremlin’s years-long push to equip its military with such weaponry, which the United States and the West have been less keen to adopt.
Ukraine’s air defense systems did not stand up well enough against the missiles, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Ukraine has adapted to new Russian aerial bombardments in the past, and has seen particularly high levels of success against Shahed drones. However, the Kinzhal provides a specific challenge that is immune to Ukraine’s air defenses.
It appears unlikely that such attacks will become a regular or decisive feature of the conflict, as Russia is running low on supplies. Russia has about 50 Kinzhals to draw upon, and used a significant proportion in one night. The Kremlin likely deliberately launched missiles that Ukrainian air defenses cannot intercept to achieve results within the Russian information space, despite the dwindling supplies of such missiles.
The attacks serve as a psychological reminder of Russia’s military threat without shifting the balance of the war. It is believed that Putin may be playing to a domestic audience with the strikes, as there have been growing complaints among Russia’s hawkish military community that his commanders have been too “soft” or ineffective in Ukraine and have struggled to land lasting blows.