NASA has reported a slight increase in the probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth. The asteroid, which measures between 130 and 300 feet wide—approximately the width of an NFL field—currently has a 2.6% chance of collision, up from a previous estimate of 1.9%. This translates to a 1 in 38 likelihood of impact. However, it is important to note that there remains over a 97% chance that the asteroid will pass safely by Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is expected to come relatively close to Earth on December 22, 2032. The assessment of impact probabilities is ongoing, and scientists anticipate that these figures will fluctuate as they refine their understanding of the asteroid's orbit. There is a possibility that the risk of collision could ultimately diminish to zero.
NASA plans to observe the asteroid using the Webb Space Telescope in March before it moves out of view until its next pass in 2028. Should 2024 YR4 be on a collision course, potential impact sites could include areas across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, and parts of Africa and South Asia. The asteroid has been assigned a Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating a close encounter that warrants monitoring but does not currently necessitate public concern.
Experts, including Paul Chodas from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, emphasize that the increasing probability of impact is typical as more data becomes available. They expect that future observations may lead to a reassessment of the asteroid's risk level, potentially lowering it significantly.