Less than a month into the current “super” El Niño, fisheries across the Pacific are reporting different outcomes. The climate pattern, marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, can disrupt ocean circulation and the food chains that support fish stocks.
In Peru, authorities have effectively canceled the April-to-July anchovy season after surveys suggested reduced food had pushed the fish deeper. Anchovies are a major Peruvian export and a key global ingredient in fish oil and animal feed. Officials say the closure is intended to protect the population.
In India, officials are preparing for smaller Indian mackerel. By contrast, fishers in Southern California have reported strong catches of bluefin tuna, yellowfin, yellowtail and dorado, as warmer waters bring some species closer to shore.
Scientists cite upwelling. In normal years, trade winds push warm surface water westward, allowing cold, nutrient-rich water to rise near South America. During El Niño, weaker winds reduce that process, limiting algae growth and affecting species such as anchovies. At the same time, warmer-water fish may expand into areas where they are easier to catch.
The economic effects are uneven. Reduced supply can raise prices for seafood products, including salmon, mackerel or corvina, while species that thrive in warmer conditions may become cheaper or more available. Analysts say many fishing communities may need to diversify seasonally, though smaller operators often have fewer options.
Researchers point to wider risks, including coral reef damage, kelp deterioration, lower oxygen levels and possible disputes when migrating fish draw vessels across maritime boundaries. In Peru, concern extends to Humboldt squid, a resource for artisanal boats that may decline during El Niño. The final outcome will depend on the event’s strength and timing. Experts caution that each El Niño develops differently, while climate change may increase the likelihood of stronger events.