Meteorologists say El Niño, the recurring warming of equatorial Pacific waters, has developed and could become one of the strongest events recorded since 1950. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed the pattern Thursday, estimating a 63 per cent chance it will reach historic intensity by late fall or early winter.
El Niño shifts atmospheric circulation and can influence weather far beyond the Pacific. Climate scientists quoted by CBC said the event is forming in an ocean and atmosphere already warmed by greenhouse gas emissions, which may increase the likelihood of extreme heat, heavy rainfall, drought and wildfire conditions in some regions. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres called the development an “urgent climate warning,” saying El Niño conditions would add to existing warming.
The impacts are expected to differ widely by location. El Niño often reduces Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing storm risks in parts of the Pacific, including Hawaii and other islands. Western South America can experience heavy rain and flooding, while India, Australia and parts of the Middle East and Africa may face varying combinations of heat, drought or heavy rain. In Canada, El Niño effects are usually most evident in winter, commonly bringing milder temperatures.
In the United States, NOAA officials said the southern states can see wetter winter conditions, while the Pacific Northwest may be warmer and drier. Some agricultural areas and drought-affected regions could benefit from added rainfall, although outcomes depend on timing and local conditions.
Researchers noted that this El Niño appears earlier and stronger than many past forecasts at this stage. It is expected to peak in fall or early winter, and larger events can persist longer. Scientists said preparation remains important as forecasts develop over the coming months around the world.