Haley's progress in New Hampshire narrows the gap with Trump

In recent surveys conducted by CBS News and YouGov, it has been found that former President Donald Trump maintains a strong lead in the state of Iowa, while former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has emerged as the top alternative to Trump in New Hampshire.

Haley has consolidated much of the non-Trump vote in New Hampshire and is now seen as the most electable candidate among Trump's challengers. She is viewed favorably on being "likable" and "reasonable," and performs nearly on par with Trump in terms of being "prepared."

On the other hand, Trump dominates in Iowa, where likely caucus-goers see him as a "strong leader" who represents Iowa values. The majority of Trump's supporters in Iowa feel that things were better when he was president.

It is worth noting that there are clear differences between the priorities of Trump and non-Trump voters. While Trump is seen as a strong leader and is favored to beat Joe Biden, he is not considered the most likable or reasonable candidate in New Hampshire.

Haley has gained support from self-described moderates and independents in New Hampshire, which has a more moderate electorate compared to Iowa. These groups express more openness to a candidate who is different from Trump if he is not the nominee.

In terms of policy issues, both New Hampshire and Iowa Republican voters favor bans on medical procedures to change a child's gender and discussions of gender identity in schools. Additionally, both states show support for the idea of mass deportations.

The surveys also found that Haley and Chris Christie have some overlap in terms of voters considering them, but Christie receives more negative evaluations and is seen as a long shot to beat Biden.

Overall, Trump's lead in Iowa has widened since September, and he is the only candidate being actively considered by a majority of likely caucus-goers. Haley's support in New Hampshire would earn her a significant number of delegates, while DeSantis and Christie's support hovers around the 10% threshold to qualify for any delegates.

It is important to note that these surveys were conducted between December 8-15, 2023, and have a margin of error of ±6.1 points in Iowa and ±5.5 points in New Hampshire. The samples were representative of registered voters in each state and were weighted based on various demographic factors.

In conclusion, while Donald Trump maintains a strong lead in Iowa, Nikki Haley has emerged as a top alternative to him in New Hampshire. The priorities and preferences of Trump and non-Trump voters differ, and both states show support for socially conservative themes and the idea of mass deportations.


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