According to a recent Gallup poll, political independents remain the largest political group in the United States, with 43% of U.S. adults identifying as such in 2023. This ties the record high from 2014 and continues a trend of independent identification being 40% or higher since 2011, with the exception of the presidential election years in 2016 and 2020. In comparison, both Republicans and Democrats each make up 27% of U.S. adults, with the Democratic figure marking a new low for the party.
Since 1991, independents have consistently outnumbered supporters of the major political parties, except for a few years between 2004 and 2008. The increase in the percentage of independents has mainly come at the expense of Democrats, who were previously the largest political group.
In terms of party leanings, slightly more independents lean Republican than lean Democratic. As a result, a combined 45% of U.S. adults identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP, while 43% are Democrats or Democratic leaners. This is similar to the figures from 2022 when Republicans had a one-point advantage.
In terms of ideological identification, conservatives and moderates tie for the largest groups, with 36% each. Liberals make up 25% of U.S. adults. These figures have remained relatively stable in recent years, with the increase in liberal identification reflecting shifts in how Democrats describe their political views.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the parties are closely matched based on party identification and leanings. However, Democrats are in a weaker position compared to recent election years, with a record low percentage of adults identifying as Democrats and a Republican advantage in leaned party identification. Independent voters remain the largest group and will play a crucial role in the upcoming election.
It is important for both parties, but especially Democrats, to nominate a candidate who can appeal to independent voters. Despite the likely drop in the percentage of independents during an election year, they will still be the most influential and persuadable group of voters. The outcome of the election may depend on which party can effectively attract and win over these independent voters.