Disney and James Cameron's latest installment in the Avatar franchise, "Avatar: Fire and Ash," premiered in theaters on Thursday, earning $12 million during its early preview screenings in the U.S. Despite this figure being lower than the $17 million generated by its predecessor, "Avatar: The Way of Water," in 2022, analysts project that "Fire and Ash" will still achieve upwards of $100 million in its opening weekend across North America.
The film's performance is significant as it arrives in a competitive market. According to Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore, the movie's success will influence overall box office totals for the year. Internationally, "Fire and Ash" garnered $43.1 million in preview screenings, which is expected to bolster its overall earnings.
Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango, noted the differing circumstances surrounding each Avatar release. The first film became a sleeper hit, while the second capitalized on a resurgence in moviegoing post-COVID. The current installment is set against a backdrop of increased competition.
Despite the franchise's financial success—both prior films grossed over $2 billion—Avatar has not achieved the same cultural prominence as franchises like Star Wars or the Marvel Cinematic Universe. The appeal of Cameron’s films lies in their visual and auditory spectacle, often enhanced by premium formats like IMAX and 3D, which continue to draw audiences, especially in international markets.
While early estimates indicate that "Fire and Ash" may not match the opening of its predecessor, analysts suggest that the long-term outlook remains positive, with strong international performance likely to outweigh domestic results.