Former President Donald Trump held a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York on October 27, 2024, which resulted in a surge in the stock price of his social media company, Trump Media. The stock rose over 20% on Monday, reaching above $46.80 per share in intraday trading. Trump owns nearly 57% of Trump Media, with his stake totaling almost $5.4 billion at the intraday high.
The company's market value had previously experienced significant fluctuations, with a major sell-off in late September that saw the stock drop below $12 a share. However, in October, the stock recovered all those losses as the election between Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris entered its final weeks. Critics have pointed out that Trump Media's market value and stock movements may not necessarily reflect the company's performance, as Truth Social, the platform owned by Trump Media, generates minimal revenue and has a small audience.
Analysts have suggested that the stock's value is more tied to the support for Trump from retail investors and their belief in his potential return to the White House. The recent stock surge following the rally at Madison Square Garden has been interpreted as a sign of enthusiasm from Trump's supporters. Additionally, political betting sites have shown a shift in favor of Republicans, despite polls indicating a close race.
Concerns have been raised about potential manipulation in election betting markets, with reports of a single individual building a significant pro-Trump position in a French presidential election bet. It is essential to note that odds and gambling platforms do not use the same methodologies as traditional political polling and are not substitutes for accurate polling data. The situation continues to develop, and updates are expected.