In 2025, President Donald Trump introduced an extensive tariff regime targeting imports from various countries, asserting that foreign nations would bear the costs while American consumers would benefit. However, a recent study from the Kiel Institute, an independent economic research organization in Germany, indicates that the burden of these tariffs largely falls on American consumers and importers.
The study analyzed $4 trillion in shipments from January 2024 to November 2025, concluding that only 4% of the tariff costs are absorbed by foreign exporters. The remaining 96% is passed on to U.S. buyers through higher prices or reduced supply. This has resulted in a substantial increase in customs revenue, amounting to $200 billion in 2025, which the researchers characterize as a tax primarily shouldered by American households.
The analysis specifically highlighted the impact of tariffs on exporters from countries such as Brazil and India, noting that they did not mitigate the costs as Trump had suggested. The researchers posited that exporters might have opted for alternative markets or perceived the tariffs as temporary, leading them to maintain pricing strategies that ultimately affect American consumers.
Other research from institutions like the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy and Harvard Business School corroborates these findings, indicating that American consumers are significantly impacted by the tariffs through increased prices and decreased product availability.
In recent developments, Trump has announced new tariffs on European allies beginning in February 2026, with further increases planned for June. The legal basis for these tariffs is currently under review, as two lower courts have previously determined that Trump may have overstepped his authority in imposing them under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. A Supreme Court ruling on this matter is anticipated soon.