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SpaceX goes from 10% success odds to $2 trillion market cap

SpaceX’s market debut on Nasdaq marked a major moment for U.S. capital markets, with the company raising $75 billion in the largest initial public offering on record and ending its first trading day valued at about $2.1 trillion. The IPO made SpaceX the sixth most valuable U.S. company and pushed founder Elon Musk’s net worth into trillionaire territory, according to the report.

Speaking to employees in Texas before trading began, Musk reflected on the company’s early uncertainty, saying he once gave SpaceX less than a 10% chance of success. Founded in 2002, the rocket and satellite company now employs about 22,000 people.

Investor demand was strong despite unusual pricing and significant financial questions. SpaceX set its IPO price at $135 without the typical range or negotiation process. Shares closed up 19%. Critics noted the company lost $4.9 billion last year and has accumulated more than $41 billion in losses since inception, while trading at a valuation far above its revenue.

Supporters said the offering could reopen the IPO market after several slow years and improve prospects for anticipated listings from OpenAI and Anthropic. Major early investors, including Alphabet and Valor Equity Partners, saw large gains, and thousands of current and former employees reportedly became millionaires.

The IPO also drew scrutiny. Politicians and activists pointed to concerns about wealth inequality, inflation and SpaceX’s artificial intelligence practices. Analysts questioned whether the company can justify its valuation, citing dependence on Starship, further growth in Starlink, returns from AI infrastructure and future free cash flow.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell emphasized operational priorities, including rocket production, human spaceflight and broadband access, while leaving open the possibility of future synergies with Tesla. Musk largely used social media to amplify supportive messages, later writing that he loved SpaceX’s employees “beyond words” after the milestone trading session on Friday.

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