On October 14, 2024, Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris spoke at a campaign event at the Erie Insurance Arena in Erie, Pennsylvania. This event came amidst a shift on the political gambling platform Polymarket towards former President Donald Trump. Four accounts, collectively spending over $28 million betting on Trump to win the 2024 election, were found to be controlled by a single trader.
Polymarket confirmed that the trader is a French national with extensive trading experience and a financial services background. The accounts were funded through the U.S.-based exchange Kraken, but no evidence of market manipulation has been found. The company has conducted an investigation with third-party experts and found no wrongdoing by the trader.
The New York Times reported on Polymarket's statement, indicating that the company worked with the investigations firm Nardello & Company. Despite the widening odds gap on Polymarket favoring Trump over Harris, most national polls show a neck-and-neck race well within the margin of error.
Elon Musk, a major financial backer of Trump's campaign, has stated that betting markets are more accurate than polls as actual money is on the line. Polymarket emphasized that prediction markets measure the likelihood of an event occurring rather than the percentage of people intending to take action, such as voting.
The trader's accounts on Polymarket have also bet over $7 million that Trump will win the popular vote over Harris. While odds and gambling platforms differ from traditional political polling methodologies, the trader has agreed not to open further accounts without notice. Polymarket, currently banned for U.S. traders, continues to face scrutiny as political betting markets play a more prominent role in the 2024 election cycle.