Elon Musk predicts digital superintelligence in 5–6 years

In a recent conversation on Twitter Spaces with Representatives Mike Gallagher and Ro Khanna, billionaire Elon Musk expressed his belief that "digital superintelligence" would be a reality within the next five or six years. Musk went on to compare this development to a season finale of a Netflix series, suggesting a showdown between the West and China, with the ultimate series finale being the emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI).

Khanna expressed surprise at the accelerated timeline proposed by Musk, stating that he had not anticipated such rapid progress in this field. Musk later clarified that digital superintelligence refers to a system that is smarter than any individual human at any given task, but not necessarily smarter than the combined intelligence of all humans. He admitted that thinking about a future with AI does cause him stress.

During the conversation, Musk reiterated his support for regulatory oversight in the development of emerging technologies. He drew a parallel to the regulation surrounding nuclear weapons, emphasizing that dangerous technologies should be subject to necessary restrictions. This aligns with his previous advocacy for regulatory measures, as evidenced by his participation in an open letter calling for a moratorium on the development of AI systems more advanced than OpenAI's GPT-4.

Interestingly, this conversation occurred shortly after Musk announced the launch of his new artificial intelligence company, xAI. With this venture, Musk aims to contribute to the development and advancement of AI technologies.

Overall, Musk's statements reflect his optimism and anticipation regarding the rapid progress of AI and its potential to reach superintelligence within the next few years. However, he also acknowledges the need for caution and regulatory oversight to ensure the responsible development and deployment of these technologies.


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