Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan recently announced that the bank's economists are no longer forecasting a recession in the United States. In an interview on CBS' "Face the Nation," Moynihan stated that just a year ago, the bank's analysts were predicting an economic downturn, but those concerns have now dissipated.
According to Moynihan, Bank of America Research is now projecting a moderate growth rate of around 2% to 1.5% over the next six quarters. He suggested that the economy will likely continue to grow at this rate, with some fluctuations.
While Bank of America is optimistic about the country's economic outlook, JPMorgan Chase economists have taken a more cautious stance. They recently raised the odds of a recession in the U.S. this year to 35%, up from their previous estimate of 25%. The JPMorgan economists cited easing labor market pressures and slowing wage inflation as factors contributing to their concerns.
Despite the differing views between Bank of America and JPMorgan, both banks agree that the economy is facing some uncertainties. While Bank of America sees no signs of a recession in the near future, JPMorgan analysts still believe there is a 45% chance of a downturn in the second half of 2025.
It is important to note that economic forecasts are inherently uncertain and can change based on a variety of factors. As such, investors and policymakers should carefully consider a range of perspectives when making decisions about the future of the economy.